Paris Climate Accord – Implications of US exitWhy in News?There has been widespread condemnation of US exit. UNSecretary General’s spokeperson called it a major disappointment and EU termed it a sad day for the world. Us coal industry andRepublican supported the move. Trump mentioned the deal would cost US millionof jobs.
What is under Paris Accord?2c below Why such a decision by Trump Administration?He is making promises rwal during his election campaign. Paris agreement was itself a huge compromise. Agreement comes in to force in 2020. So rules to be made. Will US upset the rulemaking process. Green Climate Fund GCF which is costing the U.S. avast fortune.
US largest most responsible nation has walked away, nowcountries like China and India may have to take more responsibility . Efforts with in the usThere are statesin US like California and newyorkhas therirown regulations which are very advanced.States like Virginia which have switched to gas from coal .Climate change is the global problem so will affect US too India’s per capita emission is very less.Implicatioons on IndiaImpacyts of climate change on the economy. AS we were not getting much money so money is not a bigissue.
With withdrawl of US weak paris agreement will become more weaker.Country with highest per capita consumption of energy haswithdrawn.There is no punitive measures u can take against us. Trump said that he wants to renogiatate the Paris Agreement While Us talk about Freedom of Navigation but they haven’tsigned Law of the Sea Convention.While they are talking about adhering to theprinciple3s which the convention endorses. Renogotaoitaion will be more disruptive. We did not have historical responsibility in Paris agreement.
Waliking out will also take new path, it may take around 3-4year. What about the countries which are not capable likeMaldives, Bangladesh. We need to find the strategy to strengthen the ParisAgreementThe one of the fastest growing sector of US is Clean Energysector.
Growth in solar energy outpaces the other sector. Million of jobs hasbeen created in Solar, Wind, Advanced Batteries, Energy Efficiency etc.Climate agrrement does not cut jobs it cuts pollution. Paris agrrement is non binding.
China- Germany Agreemnt. gOVERNOR form Claifornia made officialstatement tHAT THEY WILL work with China Impact of USA’s withdrawal from the agreement The Financial aid for the developing countries in order to developclean energy capabilities is injeopardy. This is not the first time that the U.S. is pulling outof an international climate agreement. It withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol onthe grounds that emerging economies did not have quantified emission targets. Would it also impact the Geopolitical Importance of United States atInternational Level?with the U.S.
‘ withdrawalfrom the Paris climate accord and from the United Nations Educational, Scientificand Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), U.S. influence is at its weakest in ageneration. With the U.S. governmentcutting its expenditure ondiplomacy, it is likely that “American influence” will wane even more. What is the withdrawal Mechanism in Paris Climate Agreement?The agreement, which was negotiated by 195 parties tothe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on December 12,2015, in Paris, came into force on November 4, 2016.
A year is requiredfor actual withdrawal once the UN has formally received the withdrawalapplication. Therefore, Trump can only start the process for withdrawal byNovember 2019Article 28 of the Paris Agreement states that parties cannotapply for withdrawal for first three years.So What is the way forward for Trump Administration?According to Article 28.2 of the agreement, even if theTrump administration were to submit a written notification on withdrawal to theU.N.
Secretary- General on the very day of expiry of the three-year period, thenotification could take effect only after a year from that date, which meansthat a U.S. withdrawal can take effect at the earliest on November 4, 2020. But the next round of U.S. presidential elections wouldhave gotunder way the day before.
So, even if Trump wants toreturn to the negotiating table, it canonly be under the next U.S. government. This grandannouncement to the world is, therefore,pure theatre. What are USA’S INDC?To reduce its carbon emissions from 2005 levels by a mere26-28 per cent by 2025. But what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) demands of developed countries, on the basis of science that takes intoaccount historical, current and future emissions, is 25-40 per cent reductionbelow 1990 levels if GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are to stabilise sothat the temperature increase is limited to 2 °C, theguardrail to prevent the catastrophic consequences ofclimate change.
Are the efforts taken by USA sufficient?From 1990 to 2005, U.S. emissions actually rose by 17per cent, making its Paris commitments just 9-11 per cent from 1990 levels. Incomparison, the E.
U. made a commitment of “at least 40 per cent” reduction from1990 levels. In reality, therefore, the U.S.
is greatly advantaged comparedwith the E.U. If Trump wanted to scale down the U.S’ commitments, he could havedone so without making the grandiose pronouncement of withdrawal from theagreement, which is a non-starter.Historically, the U.S.
is the largest contributor toclimate change, responsible for 21 per cent of the accumulated stock of carbonin the atmosphere. It is the second-largest contributor (with 14.34 per centshare, after China’s 29.51 per cent) to the current flow of global carbon emissions.
It is also well known that with the current Paris pledges, the globaltemperature rise by the end of century will be about 3.3 °C, which meanscountries need to ramp up their commitments a great deal more, not lower them. TheOrder called to revoke, repeal anddismantle most of the previous ad1ninistration ‘sclimatedecisions including the Clean PowerPlan (CPP). The Plan 1neantto reduce emissions fromelectricitysector by an estimated 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030with a view to shift away fromcoalfired energy and limitusage of natural gas.Additionally,Oba1na’s administration sixmoratorium on climate change were also repealedbringing to light thatUS administration’s focus is on fossilizing its economy and achievement ofclimate goals see1nedno in near future.
12 OnJune 1, 2017, President Trump formallyannounced that US would quit the Paris Agree1nent,citingthat it’s unfair toUS’ econo1nical interests13•Thereis still a 3- yearlock in period under theParisAgreementfor Parties to quit the Agreement. Thisimplies thatUS till the time it actually exits theAgree1nentwould take part in cli1natenegotiationshappening untilthat point. EUneedsto forge a strategy of dealing with playerslike US who are all set tore-fossilize theireconomiesthusgreatly undermining tbe goalsof the Paris Agreement. USby its actions also sets a bad precedentonother players who could follow US foot-steps.EUChinajoint leadership on clitnate change wouldalso be tough to implement considering that China hasno track record on dealingwith soft issues like climatechange.
Besides, Chineseleadership may not be too welcomed byother developed and even developing countries.lndia too has not specified on willingly laudingor agreeing to Chinese leadership onclimate change issue.Lt wouldalso be interesting to seeif the EU can come up with a strategyto deal with rogue players likethe US in the climate change issue, especiallyconsidering the fact that evenafter the pull out, theUS would continue to participatein the negotiations for three years.How the EU deals with these challenge remains to be seen. Asthe global community is strugglingto implement the Paris Agreement, theEU needs to stepup its action. Salient features of the Paris Climate Agreement:• Paris agreement calls for holding the increase in the globalaverage temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursueefforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.• The agreement acknowledges “the importance of averting, minimizingand addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climatechange.
However, this provision “does not involve or provide a basis for anyliability or compensation,” as wealthy nations do not want to be held financiallyliable for climate change, insisted on.• The agreement requires all countries to submit updated plansfor reducing their greenhouse gas pollution through 2025 or 2030.• The deal requires a global “stocktake” — an overall assessmentof how countries are doing in cutting theiremissions compared to their national plans – starting in 2023,every five years. The deal requires countries tomonitor, verify and report their greenhouse gas emissions usingthe same global system.• The agreement sets up a “Capacity-Building Initiative forTransparency” to help developing countries meet anew requirement that they regularly provide a national “inventoryreport” of human-caused emissions, by source, and track their progress inmeeting their national goals.• The agreement, which takes effect in 2020, calls on nations toestablish “a new collective quantified goal” ofat least $100 billion a year in climate-related financing by 2020.
? The developed countries were successful in getting their OECD reporton climate finance acknowledged into the formal negotiations, despitedeveloping countries claiming that it had used dubious accounting methods. ThisOECD report could now become one of the bases for defining climate finance. ?Principles of equity and differentiated responsibilities remain on table but noprogress on operationalizing them in the Paris Agreement rulebook.
? The roadmap for rich countries to provide US $100 billion annually starting 2020 looksmore dubious than before. ? No space for deeper emission reductions orincreased climate finance by rich countries before 2020. ? The replenishment offunds for adapting to climate change though, was one of positive developmentsfrom the Marrakesh conference. There was a demand for replenishing theadaptation fund under the Paris agreement and that was done with $80 million.However, discussion over it will continue in the next CoP. ? The issue ofproviding loss and damage finance to vulnerable countries also will be taken upnext year.
? India’s call for ‘Climate Justice’ finds no place. India unable tofind even a rhetorical entry for ‘lifestyle issues’ at Marrakech.