Egypt and Bahrain
I think we can safely assume that the most important area of interest as far as the US is concern at the moment is the Middle East vis a vis its economic interests. From an International Relations point of view, two interesting Countries in this region are Egypt and Bahrain but in this case not necessary because of oil. We can divide the Arab countries experiencing political turmoil into three categories: those that seem to be on a positive trajectory toward democracy; those in a state of uncertainty; and those where the forces of repression have crushed the opposition. In Category A, I believe that only Tunisia deserves that designation. Category B includes Egypt with prospective candidates Libya (post-Gaddafi) and perhaps Jordan later on. Category C Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria and Jordan.
While the direction of Egypt??™s political transition is still unpredictable, in the long run, moving towards a new equilibrium of state sustainability will be conditional on whether and to what extent, Egypt will be able to marginalize the old power system. However the Egyptian political System faces many dangers, especially the urgent need to transfer power from the military rule to a civil administration and the urgent. desire of some citizen to restore stability and security, even through undemocratic means But compared with other Arab countries that are currently experiencing similar revolts against their ruling regimes, the Egyptian revolution has yet been the most successful in terms of peaceful transition toward democracy and laying the foundation of a more transparent, and accountable political system. Most analyst argue that one of the most important that has to be taken is to remove the army from the centre of the political life, which they have been in 1952 and is unlikely to easily give up this role easily. This concern should not be taken lightly as history shows that the army officers who succeeded in riding Egypt from the corrupt political establishment in 1952 failed in managing the countrys transition to a democratic, just and prosperous future otherwise the move towards democracy and a free market economy will be difficult and highly damaging.
In the case of Bahrain, after an initial condemnation of the use of violence and a general call for moderation, the United States has deferred to the regimes crackdown with Saudi participation. At present the protests in Bahrain appear to be only on the part of the indigenous Shia-majority population, protesting their discrimination by a Sunni-minority who rule the country. What will the US administration do if the situation changes and the protests extend to include the whole population, claiming for more democracy and individual freedoms Will President Obama come out on the side of the people of Bahrain, taking into account that the island-state is home to the Fifth Fleet of the US and is linked by a bridge to Saudi Arabia
The United States in the abstract may still be associated with political liberties but it is widely viewed as two-faced and speaking out of both sides of its mouth. Obviously the US has no interest or intention of rolling back the revolution in Egypt. But surely prefers that important elements of the old order do stay in place: Egyptian collaboration on Gaza, on the peace process, on Lebanon, and on Iran — not to speak of full cooperation in lending all means on the endless war on terror. Most political analyst do not believe that the Obama administration has embraced the transformative process in the Middle East. Some Americans may see it that way, but few if any in the region do. Obviously the United States is preoccupied with trying to balance its international public relations efforts (appearing on the side of virtue) against other tangible interests (Terrorism, Israel, Oil and Iran).
The overwhelming impression seems to be that Washington has revealed itself to be just like any other self interested state that uses the language of enlightened values when convenient and when it serves America??™s interests. The United State??™s grudging gestures and belated rhetoric about democracy doesn??™t change that. It most certainly doesnt change the resentment and disillusionment of those seeking democratic transformation in this region.
Regardless of which of these country you look at, the future is bleak Real democracy will be a long time coming
Egypt and Bahrain
Egypt and Bahrain