Argument Validity

Exercise 7-9
Given the premises, discuss whether the conclusion of each argument that
Follows is (a) true beyond a reasonable doubt, (b) probably true, or (c) possibly
True or possibly false. You should expect disagreement on these items, but the
closer your answers are to your instructor??™s, the better.

2. The annual rainfall in California??™s north valley averages twenty-three
inches. So the rainfall next year will be twenty-three inches.
The premise that something that happened in the past will happen in the future is fallacious. ?  Although there is an average amount of rainfall in California, the average does not represent an actual yearly amount of rainfall. ?  Therefore the prediction for 23 inches of rain is not strong, and can be considered possibly false or possibly true.
3. You expect to get forty miles to the gallon in that Why, that old wreck
has a monster V8; besides, it??™s fifty years old and needs an overhaul.
The premises are that the vehicle requires an overhaul, it has a monster V8, and it is old. ?  These conditions would make it seem as though this vehicle wouldn??™t be able to achieve 40 mpg. ?  However, we are not informed about the rest of the vehicle. ?  This particular model may be very fuel efficient or has been modified to get better miles per gallon. ?  As a result the conclusion is probably true, but not absolutely true.
4. In three of the last four presidential races, the winner of the Iowa Republican
primary has not captured the Republican nomination. Therefore,
the winner of the next Iowa Republican primary will not capture the
Republican nomination.
The premise that the past predicts future results is fallacious. ?  Wining the Iowa Republican primary would not preclude a candidate from winning the party??™s nomination. ?  The conclusion was based on the last three out of four years. ?  That does not guarantee that history will be repeated. ?  However, it is common that things happen that influences outcomes, and that there is likely some unidentified reason for what??™s happed in Iowa. ?  Consequently the conclusion is probably true.
6. The number of cellular telephones has increased dramatically in each of
the past few years. Therefore there will be even more of them in use this
coming year.
The conclusion that cell phones will increase this year is probably true. ?  Past history does not guarantee a future result but combining this information with the current market can provide some insight. ?  Depending on whether the market is saturated or an unanticipated event happens it is quite likely that the use of cell phones will increase at a rapid pace.
7. Since the graduates of Harvard, Yale, Princeton, and other Ivy League
schools generally score higher on the Graduate Record Examination than
students from Central State, it follows that the Ivy League schools do
more toward educating their students than Central State does.
This argument is a controversial one, but based on the premise that graduates from certain schools score better on tests than other schools, I would suggest that the conclusion is only possibly true or possibly false.
8. Michael Jackson has had more plastic surgery than anybody else in California. You can bet he??™s had more than anybody in Connecticut!
This could be a great argument but I feel the conclusion is possibly true or possibly false. Michael Jackson has had right many plastic surgery but who know that he had more than anybody in Connecticut have anybody did a ratio to his to see who has more I don??™t think so, so therefore you can??™t really say that he has had more plastic surgery than anybody else.
10. When liquor was banned in 1920, hospitalizations for alcoholism and
Related diseases plummeted; in 1933, when Prohibition was repealed,
Alcohol-related illnesses rose sharply again. Legalization of cocaine,
Heroin and marijuana would not curb abuse of those substances.

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11. Relax. The kid??™s been delivering the paper for, how long Three, four
Year??™s maybe And not once has she missed us. The paper will be here,
Just wait and see. She??™s just been delayed for some reason.
I think that this conclusion could be true or then it could be false because the children may come and just the day they might decide they may not come or may not want to give them the paper.